SPECULATION A THREAT TO OIL PALM PLANTERS

This write up by LOONG TSE MIN is downloaded from thestar online (Saturday December 6, 2008) and is of interest to all planters.

Speculation in the crude palm oil (CPO) futures market could pose a threat to the plantation industry under current market conditions.

Interband Group palm oil trader Jim Teh told StarBiz that there was a strong speculative element in CPO prices that shot up from RM1,488 per tonne to about RM1,600 last week on thin volume but had tapered off this week

He said importers from China and India had early this year defaulted on their contract orders partly due to speculation as “CPO prices were pushed up and then suddenly dipped”.

Many of the contracts were locked in at RM3,000 per tonne. When CPO fell to RM2,500 per tonne in August, importers in both countries lapsed on their contracts amounting to about 150,000 tonnes.

At the current CPO price of about RM1,500 per tonne, Teh said a further 300,000 to 400,000 tonnes worth of CPO futures contracts were defaulted in October.

“If prices are high but importers default on the contracts, what is the use to the planters?” Teh asked.

Fertiliser prices had shot up in tandem with the CPO price, he said, adding: “Planters, especially smallholders, will be hit in terms of high cost of fertilisers and left with excess stock.”

Teh estimates CPO to trade between RM1,300 and RM1,450 per tonne for the first half of 2009.

At an average price of RM1,400 per tonne, most plantation companies would still have a profit margin of about 25%, which was good, given the current market conditions, he said.

A chief executive officer with a major plantation group holds a differing view.
“I don’t think there is much speculation as most of the foreign funds have left the (CPO) market.

We can see that CPO prices have not dropped to RM1,200 as predicted even as crude oil falls below US$50 a barrel, which is a sign that CPO price is quite stable,” he said.

He also did not see how higher prices were bad for the industry as it gave better profit for plantation companies.

However, United Malacca Bhd CEO Dr Leong Tat Thim concurred with Interband’s Teh.
“Aggressive fluctuation in CPO prices is not good for the industry as it is bad for both buyers and sellers,” Leong told StarBiz.

“Prices between RM1,600 and RM1,800 per tonne will be good and viable to the industry.”

Leong said he expected the CPO price to hold at its current level and bounce back to RM2,000, by the end of next year.

This was due to measures taken by the Government to reduce the current high CPO stock through replanting subsidy and mandatory use of biofuel in all commercial vehicles, he said.

“There is another favourable factor which is the wide price disparity of US$300 per tonne between CPO and soya bean oil prices.

“This makes palm oil a very attractive alternative,” he added.

Leong said planters were trying to keep costs below RM1,000 per tonne of CPO.

“During these difficult times, I hope the Government at federal and state levels will not consider imposing additional taxes on the palm oil industry.”